ELECTORAL INTEGRITY AND GRASSROOTS DEMOCRACY: TESTING A MODEL OF TRUST AND LEGITIMACY IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between perceived electoral credibility, trust in local government, perceived government legitimacy, and citizen political participation in local government elections, using Kwara State, Nigeria as a case context. Grounded in Institutional Theory, the study investigates how citizens’ perceptions of electoral processes influence their political behaviour both directly and indirectly through institutional trust and perceived legitimacy. A quantitative research design was adopted, and data were collected through structured questionnaires administered to 526 eligible voters. The data were analysed using SPSS, with PROCESS macro employed to test mediation and moderation effects. The findings reveal that perceived electoral credibility has a significant positive effect on political participation, indicating that citizens are more likely to engage in elections when they perceive the process as fair and transparent. Electoral credibility also significantly enhances trust in local government institutions, while trust itself positively influences political participation. Mediation analysis confirms that trust partially mediates the relationship between electoral credibility and participation, suggesting both direct and indirect effects. Furthermore, perceived government legitimacy significantly moderates the relationship between electoral credibility and political participation, strengthening the effect when legitimacy is high. The study highlights the central role of institutional perceptions in shaping democratic engagement at the grassroots level and underscores the importance of credible electoral systems and institutional trust in strengthening local governance and political participation in emerging democracies.